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Immediate Aftermath : The more data we collect and analyze, the clearer the picture becomes.
This is the updated first part of the list that has recorded the notable events as the world deals with the COVID-19 pandemic. [2nd Part] ― The LINKS to events and sources are placed throughout the timeline. ------------------------ The More Data We Collect and Analyze, the Clearer the Picture Becomes. Someone threw a stone in a pond a long way away. And we're only just feeling the ripples. — Fukuhara from Giri/Haji, Netflix series ------------------------ On Jan 30, Italian PM announced that Italy had blocked all flights to and from China. While Italy has banned people from air-travelling to China, however according to IATA data, there's no measurement implemented for air-travellers from China into Italy till the Mar 07. Especially for Chinese people who have EU passports. On Jan 31, the US announced the category-I travel restrictions, barring all foreigners who have been in China for the past 14 days, with measures including the refusal of visas and mandatory quarantine. • "Because the US focused on China and didn't expect the infected people's entry from Europe and the Middle East, the Maginot Line was breached from behind. And so little of credible data at the beginning made the US government to miscalculate its strategic response to the virus." — Dr. Zhang Lun, currently a visiting scholar at Harvard (economics & sociology), during the interview with ICPC on Mar 29. Also on Jan 31, the WHO changed its tune and declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
Decisions on a PHEIC always involve politics .... West African countries discouraged a declaration in 2014 after they were hit by the largest Ebola virus outbreak on record, mainly because of concern about the economic impact.
------------------------ On Feb 02, regarding the US category-I travel restrictions, Kamala Harris, the former Democratic presidential candidate, declared on Twitter:
Since 2017, Trump’s travel bans have never been rooted in national security—they’re about discriminating against people of color. They are, without a doubt, rooted in anti-immigrant, white supremacist ideologies. This travel ban is no different.
On Feb 03, criticizing Trump for his travel restrictions continues. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying (华春莹), a Peking University professors James Liang (梁建章), New York Times, the Nation, OBSERVER, the Boston Globe, Yahoo, and Daily Kos were saying, it's a "panicky" decision and "racist" or it's "cruel and callous," he's stoking fear for political gains, and the president is "inappropriately overreacting." And professors Liang even said the US ban "will hurt goodwill and cooperation [with China] in the future."          Also on Feb 03, Mr. Tedros of the WHO said there's no need for travel ban measure that "unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade" trying to halt the spread of the virus.
China's delegate took the floor ... and denounced measures by "some countries" that have denied entry to people holding passports issued in Hubei province - at the centre of the outbreak - and to deny visas and cancel flights.
Also on Feb 03, China is expected to gradually implement a larger stimulus packages (in total) than a USD $572 billion from 2008. — We'd never find out but my guess is that the fund will probably go to Shanghai clique. On Feb 04, The FDA has given emergency authorization to a new test kit by the CDC that promises to help public health labs meet a potential surge in cases.
The speed ... pushing through a new diagnostic test shows just how seriously they’re taking the potentially pandemic threat of 2019-nCoV. It’s also a sign that the world is starting to learn how to deal with an onslaught of new pathogens.
Also on Feb 04, the Wuhan Institute of Virology and China's Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS, Chief Chen Wei belongs to) have jointly applied to patent the use of Remdesivir. Scientists from both institutes said in a paper published in Nature’s Cell Research that they found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus. On Feb 06, Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research & analysis unit, noted that with State Council of PRC praising his performance of containing the pandemic situation, the council expanded Li Keqiang's political control over Politburo Standing Committee of CCP. (Li Keqiang = Communist Youth League = Shanghai clique) Also, on Feb 06, as the US evacuation planes leave China, the wave of the US evacuees have arrived who are met by the CDC personnel at the quarantine sites for screening, and those who were suspected of infection will be placed under quarantine for 14 days. Also, on Feb 06, a CDC-developed lab test kit to detect the new coronavirus began shipping to qualified US laboratories and international ones. — However, on Feb 12, the CDC said some of the testing kits have flaws and do not work properly. The CDC finally ended up shipping the working test kits for mass testings on Feb 27. This was three weeks later than originally planned. On Feb 07, China National Petroleum has recently declared Force Majeure on gas imports. They are trying to create a breathing room for their foreign exchange reserves shortage. China's foreign exchange reserves fell to mere USD $3.1 trillion in Oct. 2019. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that PetroChina has directed employees in 20 countries to buy N95 face masks and send them home in China. The goal is to get 2 million masks shipped back. You can also find YouTube videos that show Overseas Chinese are scouring the masks at the Home Depot to ship them to China (the video in Korean). Also Chris Smith is pissed. On Feb 09, Trump renews his national emergency on its southern border, and Elizabeth Goitein from the Brennan Center for Justice, published an opinion article on New York Times titled "Trump Has Abused This Power. And He Will Again if He’s Not Stopped." On Feb 10, Dr. Tedros said that an advance three-person team of the WHO arrived in Beijing for a joint mission to discuss with Chinese officials the agenda and questions. Then, the joint mission of about 10 international experts will soon follow, he said. — Those WHO experts ended up visiting Chinese epicentre for the first time on Feb 24. On Feb 12, the US targets Russian oil company for helping Venezuela skirt sanctions. The US admin seemingly tried to secure leverage against Russia after noticing something suspicious was up. On the same day, Trump told Reuters "I hope this outbreak or this event (for the US) may be over in something like April." — Dr. Zhong Nanshan (钟南山), China's top tier SARS-hero doctor, also said "the peak of the virus (for China) should come in mid to late February, followed by a plateau or decrease," adding that his forecast was based on on mathematical modelling and data from recent events and government action. On Feb 13, Tom Frieden who is a former US CDC chief and currently the head of public health nonprofit Resolve to Save Lives, said:
As countries are trying to develop their own control strategies, they are looking for evidence of whether the situation in China is getting worse or better. [But] We still don't have very basic information. [since the WHO just entered China] We hope that information will be coming out.
On the same day, the CDC reports that the 15th case in the US was confirmed. The patient was a part of group who were under a federal quarantine order at the JBSA-Lackland base because of a recent trip to Hubei Province, China. By Feb 13, China hasn't accepted the US CDC's offer to send top experts, and they haven't released the "disaggregated" data (specific figures broken out from the overall numbers) even though repeatedly been asked. On Feb 14, CCP's United Front posted an article on its official website, saying (Eng. text by Google Translation):
Fast! There is no time difference to raise urgently needed materials! Some Overseas Chinese have used their professions in the field of medicine in order to purchase relevant materials Hubei province in short of supply (to send them to China). .... Some Overseas Chinese took advantage of the connection resources, opened green transportation channels through our embassies and consulates abroad, and their related enterprises, and quickly sent large quantities of medical supplies (to China), making this love relay link and cooperation seamless.
On Feb 18, Reuters reports that 3M is on the list of firms eligible for China loans to ease coronavirus crisis.
There is no indication from the list that loans offered will necessarily be sought, or that such firms are in any financial need. The Bank of Shanghai told Reuters it will lend 5.5 billion yuan ($786 million) to 57 firms on its list.
On Feb 21, Xi Jinping writes a thank-you letter to Bill Gates for his foundation’s support to China regarding COVID-19 outbreak. On Feb 24, China was rumoured on Twitter to delay the phase one trade deal implementation indefinitely which includes the increase of China's purchasing American products & services by at least $200 billion over the next two years. Also on Feb 24, S&P 500 Index started to drop. Opened with 3225.9 and closed 3128.2. By the Mar 23, it dropped to 2208.9. Also on Feb 24, China's National Health Commission says the WHO experts have visited Wuhan city for the first time, the locked-down central Chinese city at the epicentre, inspecting two hospitals and a makeshift one at a sports centre. On Feb 26, IF the picture that has been circulated on Twitter were real, then chief Chen Wei and her team have developed the first batch of COVID-19 vaccine within time frame of a month. On the same day, the CDC's latest figures displays 59 people in the US who have tested positive for COVID-19. Also on Feb 26, the Washington Post published an article that says:
.... the WHO said it has repeatedly asked Chinese officials for "disaggregated" data — meaning specific figures broken out from the overall numbers — that could shed light on hospital transmission and help assess the level of risk front-line workers face. "We received disaggregated information at intervals, though not details about health care workers," said Tarik Jasarevic of the WHO. — The comment, in an email on Feb 22 to the Post, was one of the first instances that the WHO had directly addressed shortcomings in China's reporting or handling of the coronavirus crisis.
On Feb 27, after missteps, the CDC says its test kit is ready and the US started to expand testing. On Feb 28, China transferred more than 80,000 Uighurs to factories used by global brands such as Apple, Nike, & Volkswagen & among others. Also on Feb 28, the WHO published the official report of the WHO-China joint mission on coronavirus disease 2019. (PDF) On Feb 29, quoting Caixin media's investigation published on the same day, Lianhe Zaobao, the largest Singapore-based Chinese-language newspaper, published an article reporting the following:
Dr. Li Wenliang said in the interview with Caixin media; [in Dec 2019] another doctor (later turned out to be Dr. Ai Fen) examined and tried to treat a patient who exhibited SARS-like symptoms which akin to influenza resistant to conventional treatment methods. And "the family members who took care of her (the patient) that night also had a fever, and her other daughter also had a fever. This is obviously from person to person" Dr. Li said in the interview."
------------------------ On Mar 01, China's State Council super tighten up their already draconian internet law. On the same day,Princelings published an propaganda called "A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020" which compiles numerous state media accounts on the heroic leadership of Xi Jinping, the vital role of the Communist Party, and the superiority of the Chinese system in fighting the virus. Starting on Mar 03, the US Fed has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus. It's going to be no use as if a group of people with serious means are manipulating the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns when they need it most. On Mar 04, Xinhua News, China's official state-run press agency posted an article "Be bold: the world should thank China" which states that
If China retaliates against the US at this time, it will also announce strategic control over medical products, and ban exports of said products to the US. ... If China declares today that its drugs are for domestic use only, the US will fall into the hell of new coronavirus epidemic.
On Mar 05, Shanghai Index has recovered the coronavirus loss almost completely. On Mar 07, Saudi's Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Muhammad bin Nayef were arrested on the claims of plotting to overthrow King Salman. — Ahmed bin Abdulaziz is known to have very tight investment-interest relationship with Bill Gates, Bill Browder, Blackstone, & BlackRock: One common factor that connects these people is China. On Mar 08, the Russia–Saudi oil price war has begun. The ostensible reason was simple: China, the biggest importer of oil from Saudi and Russia, was turning back tankers while claiming that the outbreak forced its economy to a standstill. On Mar 10, the Washington Post published the article saying that the trade group for manufacturers of personal protective equipment urged in 2009 "immediate action" to restock the national stockpile including N95 masks, but it hasn't been replenished since. On Mar 11, the gentleman at the WHO declares the coronavirus outbreak a "Global Pandemic." He called on governments to change the course of the outbreak by taking "urgent and aggressive action." This was a full twelve days after the organization published the official report regarding the situation in China. On Mar 13, the US admin declared a National Emergency and announced the plan to release $50 billion in federal resources amid COVID-19. Also on Mar 13, China's Ministry of Commerce states that China is now the best region for global investment hedging. On Mar 15, Business Insider reports that Trump tried to poach German scientists working on a coronavirus vaccine and offered cash so it would be exclusive to the US. The problem is the official CureVac (the German company) twitter account, on Mar 16, 2020, tweeted the following:
To make it clear again on coronavirus: CureVac has not received from the US government or related entities an offer before, during and since the Task Force meeting in the White House on March 2. CureVac rejects all allegations from press.
On Mar 16, the fan club of European globalists has published a piece titled, "China and Coronavirus: From Home-Made Disaster to Global Mega-Opportunity." The piece says:
The Chinese method is the only method that has proved successful [in fighting the virus], is a message spread online in China by influencers, including many essentially promoting propaganda. ... it is certainly a message that seems to be resonating with opinion leaders around the world.
On the same day, unlike China that had one epicentre, Wuhan city, the US now overtakes China with most cases reporting multiple epicentres simultaneously. Also on Mar 16, the US stocks ended sharply lower with the Dow posting its worst point drop in history. But some showed a faint hint of uncertain hope. On Mar 17, according to an article on Chinese version of Quora, Zhihu, chief Chen Wei and her team with CanSino Biologics officially initiated a Phase-1 clinical trial for COVID-19 vaccine at the Wuhan lab, Hubei China, which Bloomberg News confirmed. — Click HERE, then set its time period as 1 year, and see when the graph has started to move up. Also on Mar 17, China's state media, China Global TV Network (CGTN), has produced YouTube videos for Middle Eastern audiences to spread the opinion that the US has engineered COVID-19 events. Also on Mar 17, Al Jazeera reported that the US President has been criticized for repeatedly referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus" as critics saying Trump is "fueling bigotry." • China's Xinhua News tweeted "Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence." • Tucker Carlson asked: "Why would America's media take China's side amid coronavirus pandemic?" • Also, Mr. Bill Gates: "We should not call this the Chinese virus." On Mar 19, for the first time, China reports zero local infections. Also on Mar 19, Al Jazeera published an analysis report, titled "Coronavirus erodes Trump's re-election prospects." On Mar 22, Bloomberg reports that China's mobile carriers lost 21 million users during this pandemic event. It's said to be the first net decline since starting to report monthly data in 2000. On Mar 26, EURACTV reports that China cashes in off coronavirus, selling Spain $466 million in supplies. However, Spain returns 9,000 "quick result" test kits to China, because they were deemed substandard. — Especially the sensibility of the test was around 30 percent, when it should be higher than 80 percent. ------------------------ On Apr 03, Germany and other governments are bolstering corporate defenses to address worries that coronavirus-weakened companies could be easy prey for bargain hunting by China's state owned businesses. On Apr 05, New York Times says "Trump Again Promotes Use of Unproven Anti-Malaria Drug (hydroxychloroquine)." On Apr 06, a Democratic State Rep. Karen Whitsett from Detroit credits hydroxychloroquine and President Trump for "saving her in her battle with the coronavirus." On Apr 07, the US CDC removed the following part from its website.
Although optimal dosing and duration of hydroxychloroquine for treatment of COVID-19 are unknown, some U.S. clinicians have reported anecdotally different hydroxychloroquine dosing such as: 400mg BID on day one, then daily for 5 days; 400 mg BID on day one, then 200mg BID for 4 days; 600 mg BID on day one, then 400mg daily on days 2-5.
------------------------ ☞ If there were ever a time for people not to be partisan and tribal, the time has come: We need to be ever vigilant and attentive to all kinds of disinformation & misinformation to see it better as well as to be sharp in our lives. — We really do need to come together. ☞ At first, I was going to draw up a conspiracy theory-oriented list focused on Team-Z, especially Mr. Gates. However, although it's nothing new tbh, recently many chats and discussions seem overflowing with disinformation & misinformation which is, in my opinion, particularly painful at a time like this. Hence, this post became a vanilla list that's just recorded the notable events. — We all are subject to misinformation, miscalculation, and misjudgment. But the clearer the picture becomes the better we can identify Funkspiel. ------------------------ ☞ Immediate Aftermath pt.2.a ------------------------ ☞ Feasible Timeline of the Operation ------------------------ ☞ Go Back to the Short Story. ----
I thought it a good time to revisit ACB's prior convertible debt issue, in lieu of their share price advances and further convertible dumps. For background, at the bottom is a post I did in June 2017 that pulled their debt apart, and tried to make some sense of it. This is what ACB has done since. There's millions more outstanding, I'll consolidate and update at some point. They'd triggered an earlier tranche debentures at trigger of some $25MM, squashing that bug earlier this month. They'll be booking a $2MM charge against income in Q2-2018 for this. As well, given share price of today, the accelerated 17MM tranche @ $3 will be executed in December. While it's cash proceeds of some $50MM, they'll be taking a charge against income of $90MM for it in Q2-2018 as well. Yeah, convertibles can become very expensive money. One view would be that ACB is doing it now, because it's just gonna become waaay more expensive later on. And, they can deploy that $50MM to build hard assets. If shares soar, it'll be seen as having been prudent. One way or the other, they've just paid $1.75 for a dollar, 50 million times. There's more issues as well: 1.9MM 5yr @ $2.76, 1MM 5yr @ $2.39, and.........drum roll... 150MM of 3yr options and warrants for $75MM cash, priced at $3 & $4 respectively in Q1 2018. I'm gonna need some time and a quantum computer to hash this out. On the face of it, this all makes the phrase 'holy shit' seem a quiet understatement. Ima gonna do a long haul on this and post it - mainly because the totality of it is so massive relative to the company. Stay tuned... ***Deconstructing Convertible Debentures - or - How to Quietly Shift Massive Costs onto Shareholders**** - June 2017 I've made references to this before, but, I think a 'Dick and Jane' primer on the subject should be done. Despite the big words in the title, this stuff is really straightforward, and the math is grade 9 level. It's all about financing. That is, it's just like you going to the bank for a mortgage or a car loan. You need money you don't have to buy the shit you'd like. So. You're likely not gonna issue debentures for that Maserati (or that creamy lil' Ford Focus you simply have to have), but you will need to pledge some capital or use your credit worthiness to get financing. Businesses do the same thing. There's just more ways for them to do it. I'm not gonna go into them all - innovation in credit and credit-related derivatives is holy-fuck level complex. Fortunately, we don't need to go anywhere near that heady stuff (google 'interest rate call swaption' if you've got a finance fetish. Or maybe you're an applied mathematician/financial engineer temporally hedging your long dated forex book at a macro level). Some complexity does play a role here though, but awareness is all that's needed. First - Definitions:
Letter of Credit - cash deposit placed in trust on behalf of a company. Can be 100% (or less) depending on the industry. Sort of like a deposit.
Commercial Paper (CP) - short term financing, usually <1yr duration. Typically linked to cash, A/R, or some other liquid asset. Usually cheap, because it's tied to an asset.
Bonds - Long term financing, usually tied to specific long term assets. A power company might issue bonds and link a specific generating station to them. Or a manufacturer might pledge property plant and equipment. Think 10 years or more.
Debentures - can be short or long term, but, there is no specific asset pledged in case of default. Being riskier for lenders, it's usually an expensive way for a company to get financing. Businesses in this category may not have much (or any) assets, but they might hold a patent, or the lenders think they have a great idea.
Debt Covenants - obligations within the contract that specify behavior of the signees. An example of this might be that the borrower can't issue more debt to pay interest costs.
Second - Options Options are a derivative that is comprised of two values: intrinsic and extrinsic. Third - What's a convertible debenture? It's debt taken by a company, and given to a lender. It's simply a promise to pay. The lender asks for interest to be paid on the money lent (like CP or bonds), usually at rates higher than a secured loan. Sometimes the companies can't afford the interest rates. So, they get creative to entice lenders. One way is to offer nested options around either the company or perhaps future cash flows. Aurora (ACB) recently issued some convertible debentures to finance the Sky expansion. Cool. CMED issued some a year and a bit ago. Ok. Let's look at ACB's in detail, and find out what it cost them to get financing. I'm only gonna do a napkin calc. I could do the deep one, but, I don't want to spend 2 hours to get called names by the non-contributing lost stockhouse vagrants in here. Honestly, you can do the math too. And I'll point out where the complex is, so you'll know what you don't know. Knowing what you don't know is really useful in life. And business. I've seen a bunch in online boards say how great that 7% interest rate ACB got on the $75 million. Is that the actual cost of the money? No. It's not. They're paying a whole lot more than that. And if you're a shareholder, you should be really fucking pissed. I would be. I've never held them, or if I did, it was some short term swing trading last fall. If I can't remember, it wasn't much to remember. Fourth - ACB's Convertible Debenture Issue The $75 million lent is repayable on May 2, 2019. 7% interest, payable semi annually (June, Dec). I'm gonna ignore compounding, and do a straight calc. Materially, it won't matter. The debentures also have a call option nested in them. They also have a put option in them. Both of those options have value. Both extrinsic and intrinsic. So, the lender is not only getting interest on the cash, they're also getting free options from ACB. This was likely needed to sweeten the deal enough for them to do it. There are models out there that value options. They hold up really well. Mathematical laws and all. Simplicity and elegance. Fifth - Total Financing Cost Annually, ACB is paying $5.25MM to service the debt. Total interest cost before they have to repay the principal is $10.5MM. Right? What about that option value they gave up? ACB could've sold warrants/options, and used the premium received as financing too. Instead, they gave to to the financiers. What did they give? Using a $2.20 market price for ACB (today's, not May second), 2 years duration, 100% vol, the call option is $0.96. The put option is $3.20. So, effectively a call option on ~= 20 million shares, and a put on some ~= 15 million shares - assuming full strike on the $75 million. If ACB had written options themselves and sold them, they could have collected the dough, issued contingent treasury shares as a reserve on the balance sheet, and kept the premiums as recompense. I mentioned that there is some complexity in this. The hair on this is in the continuous conversion of the options (open to exercise at any time subject to 30 days notice - also known a a 'European' option, rather than an 'American' option). It's also got debt covenants within the debentures that prohibit ACB from further dilution (this is a failsafe for the lender, in case ACB decides to crash the stock by issuing another billion shares). And - the lender keeps their downside intact (recall, if ACB goes tits up, they've got no asset to grab), the lender will short an equivalent $75million in stock. They'll take the money, and invest it in short term money markets while waiting, topping up their 7% nominal interest. It's called a credit box. Despite it being a debenture, the lender is effectively fully securitized. So, how much did that $75 million cost them? Well, it's all there. I encourage you to look at this and work through it. I hope you have questions. The CFO at Aurora will have the answers. TLDR: Aurora is paying more than 37% in effective interest rates on their May 2 debenture issue. EDIT - a couple of more links inserted and a clean up of my shitty writing. EDIT 2 - at the bottom of this all is the impact on shareholders. What I assume is the obvious - I never did actually state. If the lender exercises, ACB will have to book a loss on their income statement for the difference between the strike of the call, and market. Potentially, it could be lots. If ACB hit $5 before May 2019, they'll take a $50MM hit to income. Probably wiping out a half year (or more) in sales. That's really the bottom of this all. Just fyi.
https://preview.redd.it/nrbrb96i6in21.png?width=240&format=png&auto=webp&s=2792d16cbb58e45bf8d947cbde8b810b6e641534 Genesis Vision Just one of those days… Hmm, this looks like an interesting project. Chart looks good plus it didn’t really go up a lot the last couple of days, unlike the other coins. Or maybe it didn’t go up because there is something that I don’t know yet? Let’s look online a bit longer to see if something fishy is going on before I buy some. The chart does look really good! No, nothing out of the ordinary here, I think it might just not have gone up yet but it probably will. If Bitcoin manages to not drop double digit percentages out of nowhere today that is… Seems to be close to resistance, and there are a couple BTC worth of sell orders at 140 sats, I’ll wait for that to break, and buy when it shows some strength. Getting close now, let’s wait for it to break by gluing my face to the screen to watch the 1 minute chart. There it goes! Ok, I’ll start with a small buy - Oh man It’s really going! Buy a little more - Market buy ALL the things! What, no wait. No not again! Please, please no not again… Argh… https://preview.redd.it/cup9237n6in21.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=91264c3cbfe10a0d9e699b1774a2e74b7d79bb49 Guess I will hold for a couple of days, don’t feel like taking a loss. It will probably rebound on the ‘resistance turned into support’ zone, right? I am already watching this chart for 2 hours.. I should really go do something productive. Lets just set some sell orders here and here. That market buy order really got my buy-In high, close to a 2% loss at present. I Totally wasted this evening, and I am still in the red. How is that even possible? Next morning Let’s check my portfolio. Ah man the support didn’t hold, now what? Actually, it looks like this might even go lower now. This 130 sats support is really strong so I guess I’ll use that as a stop-loss. - Stop loss triggered Oh my god man, why am I always so unlucky? Close to a 5% BTC loss, besides the loss of time. Talking about Bitcoin, how’s the big guy holding up? Hmm also looks weak to be honest. It’s dropping as we speak. Should I sell and rebuy lower? That could at least get me a bit of Bitcoin back. Yeah it’s really dropping now. The entire market is going down. Sell volume is increasing as well. I should really sell some. Whatever just sell it all. Yeah, like I thought, it’s going lower. I’ll rebuy when it goes a little bit lower. There she goes! Just a little bit lower before I buy in, might just get me back all my lost BTC at least! Bit of buying pressure going in now but that’s normal, nothing goes down, or up for that matter, the entire time. I will wait it out, got my buy-in set anyway. Please stop going up. Please STOP going up. Oh my frikkin god, got to buy back higher now. No way, I won’t do that. I’ll wait for it to drop. This is unreal! It won’t go back down. Why won’t it go back down?! Fine I’ll buy it back. Can’t believe it, I always lose, forget it, at least I will get some USD profits when I buy now – Market buy all the things! https://preview.redd.it/vc5eg4vv6in21.png?width=259&format=png&auto=webp&s=5185cc6498524de856db27b2f4bfcb2568ae4ccb NO WAY, IT’S GOING DOWN THE SECOND I BUY? HOW, WHY, WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON? The above is probably an experience that a lot of (retail) traders can relate to, and have probably gone through somewhere in their trading career, be it crypto or any stock, commodity, index or whatever else is possible to trade online. It’s a common problem, and it is the reason why only a small percentage of people manage to ‘beat the market’. People simply have the internal emotional trigger to buy something when gains are in line of sight, and sell something when losses are made. The bars being green (good) and red (bad) also don’t really help with trying to shake off that feeling. Genesis vision tries to solve this problem, giving people willing to invest in cryptocurrencies, forex and in the future probably commodities and indices, the possibility to invest in experienced, successful and hardened traders that have a solid track record, instead of taking the time and trading education (which some of those experienced traders say to be just as expensive in the end as a regular college degree, with all the losses and all) to get solid results themselves. Obviously this already exists. You can give your money to for example hedge funds, private equity funds and nowadays even robo-advisors. But do they really get the biggest return on investment? Are you important enough to have the best trader in the company actually managing your account? Are you leaving your hard earned money at the company that hired the best traders at all? Or do they squander and play the above mentioned game themselves? Who knows really. In the end, you give your money to a company that says it could, possibly, get you a whopping 7% return after a year. But only if everything goes right, the economy doesn’t implode or a stock they are too heavily invested in doesn’t go belly-up. Scrap that, they will make a whopping 7% return, but they obviously need to take some of those profits for their fees. A entry fee, a profit-fee, some unforeseen fees, and the list goes on and on. When you want to invest some of that money you earned after a long 40 hour workweek, it better be handled by the best, giving you the highest return on investment without any catch. Transparency and clarity Again, Genesis vision tries to solve this. How? By putting EVERY trade on the blockchain, giving extreme clarity in the trades made, and more importantly, the results of the trader or company (called Genesis Vision Manager). This means that people that want to invest their cash can decide for themselves who will handle their funds. No more excuses why the expected return on investment wasn’t accomplished, or uncertainty if any of these companies are actually telling you the truth when it comes to the results they have had with your funds. No more sweeping the bad trades under the rug. We. Can. See. Your. Mistakes. And successes of course! It creates extreme openness, and it gives a lot of power back to the consumer that wants to invest. Most financial instruments are (deliberately made) so hard to grasp and confusing that most general investors don’t even want to bother, and just believe the suit with the impressive building and the nice car. But now you don’t even have to look up the terms collateralized mortgage obligation or the exotic inflation derivative. They have the option to simply look up the manager, his results, and his requirements to invest with (in) him or her. https://preview.redd.it/ghu8t5p17in21.png?width=245&format=png&auto=webp&s=566cff3b153c97ead5c122ba7d775b2fabecd778 Genesis Vision gives the possibility to invest in both Funds and programs. The biggest difference being that investors can withdraw their profits from a fund at any time, while their funds are locked in a program until it ends, receiving a part of the profits made directly linked to the share of the pool they invested in. However, if you are satisfied with your current manager, the program and the results so far, you can select the option to auto-invest your stake into the next program, getting that compounding interest effect rolling. Of course only when you have found the right manager to handle your funds! A loss is obviously still a loss, and although Genesis Vision tries to limit the risk by implementing a tier system to filter managers by their previous results, you can never be sure you actually make gains on your investment. The same rules apply as to investing wherever else. Don’t put it all in one basket, only invest what you are willing to lose, do NOT take out loans or credit to invest and above all do your research before you enter into any program or fund! The dashboard https://preview.redd.it/j8k03ht37in21.png?width=550&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ef4f590ffb25518a293b87993afc205075da288 The Genesis Vision dashboard looks very appealing, going for a futuristic style that resonates with the entire crypto and financial sector. Investors are first shown a couple of filters to make the search for the right vehicle to invest in easy to accomplish. Below the first general filters investors can find the different programs with a vast array of stats available to make the right decision. However, there is a lot going on here, and it would be smart for Genesis to implement some kind of tutorial showing new investors what everything shown on the screen actually means. After finding a program that matches your personal investing style regarding buy-in, duration of the program, entry fee and generally your risk tolerance, the people behind the program can be examined. Managers are able to tell a little bit about themselves and their investment style. Statistics and graphs of previous results are shown and this helps to get some reassurance, or lets you ignore a certain investment possibility. If everything seems to fit, and people are willing to pull the final trigger, they can invest with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether or their own Genesis Vision token. The bottom line Genesis Vision could be the instrument for (crypto)investors to try and maximize their profits, but for the regular amateur trader it will mostly help with erasing their beginner mistakes and trading losses. It gives back the power to the consumer and the client. Where normally the investing is done by traders on for example Wall Street, using complicated schemes to grab as much as possible of the retail investor who is taking all of the risk, Genesis Vision creates transparency, brutally rejects losing managers and lets investors get a honest and deserved piece of the pie. It is yet another example of the power of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, disrupting one of the largest sectors worldwide. That concludes this review! If you want to add anything or have questions, please feel free to comment below. Are you feeling generous, and did you enjoy this article? I accept donations! BTC: 369AyfgLtZ349omHgafUGkrNCGHLuhPGtx ETH: 0xd74635002Af9e191665D2AaDD03921E7f1201387 LTC: MEvKQ1d4GYsyMjqYwizVb6RZmEUjDXj5ty GVT: 0x9450d2c145a7758c1d2bcfd03a1374de90fea028 Connect with me on twitter: @BullishOnCrypts
ECN. Used most by professional traders. Difficult platform for beginners
Minimum deposit $10000 (or $3,000 if under 25yo) * Well diversified -Oanda
Market maker. Second largest retail FX brokerage in the US. Easy platform for beginners.
No minimum deposit
Not well diversified, but well capitalized -Gain Capital (whitelabel forex.com) *Market Maker *Fair spreads *Minimum deposit $250 *Well diversified -FXCM Inc
ECN. Largest retail FX brokerage in the US
Minimum deposit $2000
Not well diversified. CAUTION: FXCM nearly went bankrupt in Jan-2015 due to a lack of diversification and low capitalisation. As a result FXCM LLC was bailed out with a large loan which may prove difficult to pay back. Be warned that their business may not be sustainable in the long term. -MBTrading
ECN. Mid-sized retail FX brokerage
Minimum deposit $400
International Only- -LMAX (whitelabel DarwinEx) *DMA broker based in the UK. Note that as a DMA broker LMAX eliminates the ability for LPs to last-look transactions. This may result in reduced liquidity during volatile times as liquidity providers would be likely not to risk posting liquidity to LMAX's pool. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $10,000 *Fairly well diversified -Dukascopy *ECN based in Switzerland, but available elsewhere depending on local regulations. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $100 *Fairly well diversified -IC Markets *ECN based in Australia *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Fairly well diversified -Pepperstone *ECN broker based in Australia. *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Not well diversified Software / Apps: Desktop/mobile
Apps are typically broker dependent. Some brokers have their own proprietary software, while others lease common software like Metatrader or NinjaTrader. Some software has a large development community for indicators and EAs.
Terminology/Acronyms: www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms FAQ: I need to exchange money, how do I do it? This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee. I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait? Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it. I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live? This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance. What’s money management? Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered. More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html What about automated trading? Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams. What indicators are best? That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc. What timeframe should I trade? Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades. Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)? This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint. I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money? The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX. Am I actually exchanging currencies? Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another. Why didn't my order fill? Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
Loans and Working Capital. Loan/Overdraft Against Property Overdraft facility to address your short term working capital needs . Foreign Exchange Hedging Innovative Forex services and products for your business requirements This capital gives loans to a liquidity provider through a forex broker directly to a trader to expand trading volumes. The trader himself or herself is fully responsible for these funds and their return. Leverage is usually displayed in a ratio format, for example, 100:1, which means that one unit of trader’s money for one hundred borrowed units. This also means that trading volume will ... Hedging Loans: Issues for the Lender and Swap Provider All too often in financing transactions the strategy – and documentation – to be employed by the borrower in hedging risks under the loan are left until the last minute and are given insufficient thought. In this article we consider the issues which lenders and swap providers need to consider in the context of the borrower’s hedging ... Hedging with forex is a strategy used to protect one's position in a currency pair from an adverse move. It is typically a form of short-term protection when a trader is concerned about news or an ... Hedging a Forex -- or foreign exchange -- trade does more than just protect your open position. It sets you up to profit no matter which direction your currency pair moves. Forex hedging ... Hedging forex: Currency challenges faced by businesses in South Africa. The result being that ZAR is heavily traded and highly volatile. As an Emerging Market currency, ZAR shows many of the typical attributes: Wide BID / ASK spreads – the difference between where you can buy and sell ZAR at any given point in time is large, resulting in it being very expensive to exchange from ZAR to a ... This is the core of my Forex hedging strategy and this one idea alone is very powerful. Here's how it works: When you close a winning trade, you will Roll-Off 50% of your gain from your losing trades. So you still take a loss from your losing trades, but you do it at a net profit. To get the complete guide, download the PDF here: Download PDF. Roll-Off Example. For example, if you closed a ... Hedging empréstimos: questões para o mutuante e swap provedor Muitas vezes em transações de financiamento a estratégia e documentação a ser ... Learn about forex hedging including why to use a hedge and see explanations of simple hedging, multiple currency pairs, and other options. Forex trading has become one of the biggest and strongest markets in the globe.. According to a 2019 triennial report from the Bank for International Settlements, “Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion 3 years earlier.”. The Forex market, specifically, is enticing for many reasons: traders can enter into it simply and easily, it is one of ...
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